my nephew has been living and working in HK for some time....with frequent (now not so frequent) trips to the mainland
i thought the thread might be interested in his most recent email (the part dealing with SARS):
Many of you have been asking about the SARS problem here in Hong Kong and China. You'll have to forgive the lack of information from us one this end, but we have tried to prepare some things for you now.
In Hong Kong as of today there are 162 total deaths from SARS and 1,600 total infections. Of those infected, 834 have recovered and 43 were discharged from the hospital recently. Of those currently infected, 88 are in intensive care. The fatality rate is now just over 10%. The fatality rate is a real concern as it is quite high compared to other areas. The number of daily infections are not going up and they say that is positive news. However, for the WHO to declare Hong Kong "safe" - there has to be a 20 day stretch of time where there are NO new infections.
Personally I feel it is true to say that since 1997 (Hong Kong's return to China) this is the biggest crisis to date. Without question it has affected every sphere of life in Hong Kong. An already unstable and poorly-performing economy has sunk to new lows. The government reserves have all been but used up and financially speaking, Hong Kong is reeling. The airport and hotels are ghost towns and the tourism industry as a whole has nearly come to a stand-still. (And Hong Kong is very dependant upon its tourist industry). All schools have been closed for the entire month of April and there are plans for regimented returns to school throughout the month of May if the SARS problem warrants. The difficulty for the young people and students in HK has been that even though they are off of school, they are not allowed to do anything, go anywhere for fear of infection. They call the hospitals in HK the "front lines" and one health-care worker recently died from the disease and two more have been infected. There was a sign posted on a hospital we walked by the other night that said to stay away from the hospital so you will not contact an infectous disease! So now the hospitals are the most dangerous place to go. The general feeling in HK is one of fear and it is amazing to see the behaviourial changes of the whole society here. The majority of people in HK now wear masks and you just get the sense that you are in a sick place. It's like walking through a hospital everywhere you go. Granted the public transportation system in HK moves over two million people per day and HK is very dependant upon its public transportation system so the need for people to wear masks in those crowded buses and trains is understandable. The government of HK, especially the Chief Executive, is coming under fire for the way they have handled the crisis.
Now China Mainland is another story! And there are some things to understand about China first. For anyone who has ever been to a local food market in China, this whole epedimic comes as no surprise. Some of the markets I personally have been in are some of the most disgusting things I have ever seen anywhere and they say the disease may have started in the markets. There is a real possibility that the virus has jumped from animals to humans (i.e. the eating of rats or dogs, etc). The situation in China is very bad right now. China's Communist government has never believed in civil service - therefore they do not have the resources on hand at local levels to deal with such a crisis. Panic has set in and you will probably see the government making drastic moves fight the problem of SARS. Such as instant quarantines of university students in their dorms, closures of schools without notice, transportation system shut-downs, etc. The local people will buy up salt and vinegar to burn and fumigate their houses. A report in today from one of our friends is that in the villages of China prices have increased five-fold for these items. Another report is that local officials immediately arrest anyone who comes in to their village from another village and they put them in jail for fear that they may have or be a carrier of SARS, but corruption has its ways and they are allowed to go if they pay money. The so-called facts and figures coming out of China about number of infections, deaths, etc. cannot be trusted. China's state-run media has no reputation of being forthright on such things. The number of cases reported today is 3,638 and 170 deaths - you can be sure it is much higher than that. The days and weeks ahead are very unpredictable. There is no telling what direction this will go in China and one thing is for sure, this is not going to be over soon. |
