Eddie,
MACD and RSI have never been this low on the VIX. It also seems to be one of the longest crosses of -DI above +DI, if not the longest, so I wouldn't call that neutral either. ADX seems to turn up only when the VIX is headed up, so I wouldn't read too much into that.
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On the other hand, last year's MACD spike was exceeded only by the September/October 1998 one, so that could be bullish. We'd need to see a similar chart of volatility off something like the 1974 low to see if this is "normal" behavior at the start of a new bull or just complacency.
I think it needs to be measured relatively - hence the weekly Bollinger Bands - and compared to that, it's stretched right now, and it sounds like your linear regression shows that too.
Now what to make of all those puts out there... The only part of the equation that is supporting the market here, I think, and the one thing that keeps me from doing anything more than scalping on the short side. |
