SARS and Avian Flu Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu

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To: Biomaven who wrote (775)	5/11/2003 1:53:29 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) of 4232

Peter, what's RSV? Each bug type has a doubling period, so to reach a large number of people, each infection type has to go through quite a few doublings and incubation periods to reach a LOT of people. If one person is infected on 1 October, a slowly doubling bug with a quick cure rate and short transmissible period would have a hard job of being an epidemic. It might take until spring to be rampant. A quick doubling bug with a long transmissible period would take over quickly and be epidemic early in winter. That's my guess on why different infections peak at different times. The degree of immunity would affect propagation rates too. If few are immune, many will be vectors for transmission, if many are immune, few people will be vectors and life for the bug would be like a door to door encyclopedia salesman looking for sales and new sales agents = it would take them all winter to get going. I suppose there are many variables which determine the propagation rate. Since droplets are a major transmission method for respiratory infections, dry air, heated over red hot or very hot elements or furnaces, is sure to be a major hassle for such bugs. Pasteurized air is a good thing. Mqurice

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