Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: energyplay who wrote (33384)	5/11/2003 6:44:25 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Hi energyplay, I am done with DD-ing Enerplus, that is short of seeing the energy fields and counting the gas molecules Message 18933216 I would add to the reference post that the trust has several values not explicitly recognized in the model: (a) on-going concern value beyond 2011 based on the remaining 5 years' production worth of reserves; (b) call option value of oil/gas reserve pricing; So, or in all, the market price of the unit is slightly higher than my explicitly but conservatively calculated value. I intend to model the remainder of my energy royalty plays, and verify the calculation of each is in-line with respective reserve and cost profile, and not out of line with their possibly different management philosophy (distribution, acquisition, etc). The model is of course only a guide, and is only done so that one is not flying completely blind and without a compass;0) Now, whenever Enerplus announces some major to-do, or energy price makes a big shift, I will interact with the model and pretend I know what should happen:0) Chugs, Jay

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