JPM CC
by: arbpro 05/10/03 10:24 pm
Msg: 90520 of 90525
messages.yahoo.com
I failed to notice any post concernig the recent JPM Conference. Here are my notes on the conference where Tufano presented:
1. Bill Lewis, JPM dd analyst, introduced PT and said that JPM is a "strong believer that the dd industry is in improving cycle," and that MXO was the "clear" leader in 80gb/platter manufacturing. Lewis also noted that MXO was gaining traction in emerging enterprise business. (OH, YEAH? Well, why in the F do you downgrade MXO? Wouldn't have anything to do with the need to cover some shorts would it?)
2. Tufano said that MXO shipped 55% of 1q at 80. Tufano said none of MXO's competitors "were even close." (Are you listening STX?) Tufano said MXO's dominance on 80 ramp would continue through the year.
3. Head count reductions will largely take effect in 2q and MXO should reach its goal of 115m OE in 3q.
4. Tufano said "industry has not seen a more robust future ever." He specifically said that MXO is positioned to enjoy more than its share of the anticipated growth. For example, he said that hdd production for 2007 was estimated to be 365 million drives (Tufano said he thought this estimate was conservative), compared to a 2002 level of about 220 million. He said the greatest increase will come from PVR's, an area of CE sales that MXO is the clear leader. He read off a who's who list of MXO CE customers, including, TIVO, SA, Phillips, Panasonic, Sony, Replay, Motorola, DISH, Direct TV, Comcast, Sky Com, Time-Warner, and others. He said that with Quick View MXO had the top spot in PVR sales. He said that the greatest increase in CE sales would come from PVR arena and not from game consoles. He said game console sales would be near flat the next several years whereas PVR's will soar.
5. MXO has a broad product range and recently has taken the lead in the development of OEM relationships for big drive sales. MXO is shipping 250 and 300 gb drives to NTAP, EMC and StorageTek. Tufano said as big drives prove their worth sales to NTAP etc could be enormous as cos. move from tape backup to disk.
6. All quals on 15k Atlas will be completed this q.
7. Tufano listed the following financial objectives for MXO for the future: a)sustain profitability every q b) generate cash flow every q c)continue expense reduction where possible even as revs pick up d)manage supply to demand
8. MXO believes it can sustain net margins of up to 7% and greater on occasions. As revs increase the 7% net margins will generate large amounts of cash.
9. The future belongs to those dd cos. that can manufacture huge amounts of drive (driving down the cost per drive), to cos. that can offer a broad product range, and to those cos. that can generate cash to finance future technology. He said that consolidation in the dd cos. had totally changed the landscape. He said 4 drive cos. now produce 85% of all drives in the world. Less than 4 years ago, there were 11 dd cos. He said more consolidation would occur and only the biggest and the fittest would survive.
10. He said now with "integration behind us, and the broadest product mix in MXO's history, we feel really good about our positioning."
Nice conference, there was no Q and A on the webcast. Happy Mother's Day to all the MXO Mothers. |
