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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: energyplay who wrote (33539)5/12/2003 2:54:29 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Hi energyplay, <<... even if gas prices remain at $5.50 USD, 5 years from now ERF would be worth about half (or more) of what it's worth now>>

I believe you are right.

The assumed price in ERF's 2002 annual report is for steady-state 2002 end-of-period price for 2003, and my projections simply ramp the price at 2% per annum after that, but in reality, ERF is 40-50% hedged/long term contracted, and their realized prices are below current market. If gas price remains steady, as in neither up nor down, ERF realized prices will catch up quickly to market price, realizing a pop that is already in the cards that are flipped right-side up on the table.

Chugs, Jay
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