China exports soar on orders predating SARS outbreak
Chi-Chu Tschang Bloomberg News Monday, May 12, 2003
BEIJING China's exports rose in April by a third from a year earlier, state media reported Sunday, as factories filled overseas orders made months ago, before the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome began to slow the economy.
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Exports rose 33.3 percent to $35.6 billion last month, while imports rose 34.4 percent to $34.6 billion, according to customs figures released by the Xinhua press agency.
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"Exports so far have just been marginally affected by SARS because exports depends on the global market, not the domestic market," said Liao Qun, an economist at Citic Ka Wah Bank in Hong Kong.
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The higher-than-expected increase helped China, Asia's second-largest economy after Japan, return to a trade surplus of $1.02 billion in April, after recording a trade deficit of $467 million in March.
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The State Information Center, a government research group, has forecast that China may have a trade deficit of up to $3 billion this year because Chinese hospitals need to import medicine and equipment to fight SARS, and overseas buyers are shying away.
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China's current account surplus last year was $35.4 billion, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported Friday on its Web site. The capital account surplus was $32.9 billion, the agency reported.
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Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. has lowered its estimate of growth in China's 2003 gross domestic product to 6.9 percent from 7.3 percent because SARS has kept Chinese consumers at home and closed restaurants, cinemas and shops.
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The impact of SARS on China's export figures probably will not be reflected until the third quarter. China's largest trade fair, the 93rd Chinese Export Commodities Fair, recorded only $4.42 billion in export orders in April, down three-quarters from the last trade fair as vendors and customers canceled visits.
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"Regarding external trade, the data in the coming two to three months will still reflect existing orders," said Tai Hui, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.
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