Jim,
RE: Dilution and Earnings Estimates.
The 105 million that you're looking at is Yahoo's calculated Market Capitalization. The numbers of shares is somewhere between 43.5 million and 120 million, depending on what conversions have taken place: "[A]s of May 8, 1997, SyQuest had 43.5 million shares of common stock issued and outstanding. Assuming conversion of all preferred stock, exercise of existing warrants, [etc, Syquest] has total stock obligations of 114.9 million common shares."
As far as earnings estimates, there are no analysts guessing on this quarter. SyQuest has said that revenues will be at least $29.5 million and that the earnings will be under a $33.7 million loss. I think that the bulls here are looking for revenues of $35 to $40 million.
Here are quarterly revenues for the past eight quarters (in millions, rounded, most recent quarter first): 17, 48, 45, 30, 47, 79, 88, 69. I think that they need to see revenues of at least the mid 40's to be considered bullish. Anything less than 40 would be very bearish, in my mind. They need to get revenues well up into the 50's (and perhaps 60's) before they'll hit their break-even point. They DESPARATELY need to hit break-even within a quarter or two, or they'll have to face even more dilution or debt to finance their operating losses. Their current ratio is 0.74 (as of March), which is very dangerous.
- Michael Coley
- i1.net |
