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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: kodiak_bull who started this subject5/12/2003 4:36:10 PM
From: Steven C. Vartan  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
KB: Listened to a conf call from a tech guy with lots of grey matter. His read is that we could be 4-5 weeks away from the turn. His work shows we have not put in a triple bottom since the volume, while not low at about 35% above 65 day avg, does not confirm. First resistance at 935 on the s&p then 964. to confirm the bottom need 100 to 150% above avg volume. NAS momentum best of the averages. Seasonality negative. Highest bull/bear since 02 peak which is contrarian. He indicates overbought but need MACD to turnover. Look for volume shift with churning and volume up on down days compared to up on up days.

My two centavos are: we have huge short interest positions in many names (look what happened to NVDA which went up by a billion dollars with two out of three news bullets bad news), many of the easy sellers are history, huge participation by trigger happy hedgies.

Immediately prior to the March 11 run we had a 90% down day. I don't know if a 90% up day is what it will take but just when anyone with a short position thinks they are the biggest dummy in the world is when it will turn over.

We shall see over the next few weeks.

Steve
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