Jay Gallemore's charts through Monday.
The very high Trend Indicator (TI) on the GOLD chart, and on Silver for that matter, leave me concerned that we're about to run out of gas on this rebound about here half way back up the drop from February 2nd. However, just because a TI is on the roof doesn't mean (a) that it will immediately drop, or (b) that it will drop hard enough to pull down prices. In fact as recently as January of this year we see TI remained high on the scale, the price fluttered higher and finally exhausted itself at 390. From my experience, having watched Jay's work for several years now, this type of outcome especially in GOLD is rare. More often from these levels the TI curves and drops resulting in 10-15 dollar declines in the metal at a minimum.
That a fall from here might be the outcome isn't reason to abandon one's longer term positions or ship. Rather in my opinion it seems we've learned with the metals what the commercials repeatedly teach us....to be less bullish as prices rise, not more. By being so, sure, someday, we might miss the big one when GOLD blows because JPM's derivatives explode, but how long has that been going to happen.
For Gold the trend indicator is still positive, momentum strong and price is rising. What happens the first couple of days up in the dollar, likely Tuesday, will be telling. Do the metals and miners cave? Almost for sure GOLD is not going to go through 356 and through 360 this overbought, not without at least a stalling out and consolidation that will provide for reentry if the TI pull back is shallow and the dollar rally weak.
Gallemore's charts - note also the S&P intraday chart at the bottom....high TI there suggests some downward pressure is due....fits with all the bullish talk late Monday on CNBC...
chartingyourfutures.com
Isopatch, I am decided not impressed with either WHT or MNG. Neither have shown much ability to advance here the last week or so with gold and copper in WHT's case. Both have good stories but I think the speculative crowd is missing or tiring...obviously, otherwise, off playing NASDAQ
investertech.com |
