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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 299.81

+2.7%

Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (9789)	5/13/2003 8:18:02 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) of 95617

AMAT gave investors a big clue that things were not good last quarter and for at least several more quarters with the immediate installation of a new CEO/President. I stated as much on the AMAT no politics thread the day it was announced. This poor announcement was to be expected, layoffs continue, which means product demand is down and the outlook is not promising, going forward. I anticipate more downsizing, streamlining, management reductions, and restructuring charges to continue the rest of this year. Still too much chip manufacturing capacity and no new megafabs being built. There will be sporatic upgrade purchases, but not enough for full blown equipment production.....I believe the glory days of large growth are over for the equipment manufacturers. The chip business is now mature, with only the biggest players surviving, but being cut throat in their competitive pricing to maintain contracts. Intel and AMD basically "own" the WINTEL CPU market. Specialty fabs will maintain their niches until a competitor releases a better mousetrap......evolve or die will be the mantra for chip fabs. Everytime I hear someone use the "market share" argument it raises the hackles on my neck, because market share is typically won at the expense of high margin returns and profitability. Over capacity is a curse.......

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