Thanks for the post, Bob.
I sure need some counter points to check my position.
The NASDAQ computerized network of bidding is indeed the future market.
Following other financial transactions, buying and selling in the stock market became trading of computer symbols instead of paper notes. Eliminating the floor is one thing, but THE NATURE OF THE MARKET IS THE SAME. Be it eggs, tulip bulbs, oil or shares of companies, the behavior of a market is the same regardless of the trading method.
Buyers and sellers of something meet. A computerized virtual meeting is the way of the future, but it's still many people who meet to trade.
If you're refering to tech stocks like MSFT INTC CUBE and JBIL vs. "regular" stocks the like of S KO MO 3M and GM , then let me remind you that VCRs transforming into LaserDisk transforming into DVDs is the same as b/w TV transforming into color TV transforming into stereo flat screen TV. Yes, the rate of introduction of new CPUs is much faster then in other products, but all in all it's the same thing as in any new industry. New products changed the human lifestile many times in the past: the printing machine, the typewriter and the Xerox macine, the train and the car, the computer and the PC.
All became standard consumer products. Microsoft and Intel will eventually become what GM, Kodak and Xerox are now. The PC is only 30 years old, and will reach maturity in 10 more years. Then INTC MSFT and DELL will also trade at PEs of 10-15. Which to my belief is about the same price they trade for today.
Nothing to look for in the tech sector. The Radar was a new thing in ww2. Laser and ultrasound will follow in its footsteps. Try maybe genetic engineering and space exploration and exploitation. MSFT is different, yes. like Ford in the '20s.
Arik. |
