Arik,
Well, if you mean 20% is just the begining - it's different.
I see the following market scenario: Sept low - SPX~840, Oct low - SPX~730 (already 25% off), Nov low - SPX~620 (37% off). These are support levels from the charts. After that two possibilities, (i) market is mostly flat for a year, no more rampamt speculation (so hard to believe it's possible), (ii) a 30 -50% rally into the spring of 1998, which will set us up for the MilleniumCrash, a la 1930s. (i), possibility of which is so hard to believe in, nontheless is possible with appropriate regulatory actions, may avoid MC, a la 1970s.
One way or another wild bullish expectations of suckers are not possible.
Joe |
