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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ)
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To: Mark Buczynski who wrote (868)8/3/1997 2:01:00 PM
From: Trippi   of 31646
 
Mark -- all pre Y2K analyist price targets that I have seen (i believe there are 2) have been in the $6 to $8 dollar range -- I want to repeat that these were pre Y2K targets. There was also an unconfirmed report on the "Turn $10,000 into $100,000" thread that THE WALL ST EDGE had a write up on TPRO with a target of $10. I know Cheryl did her best to confirm this -- but I do not believe that she or I have had any success (although the poster on the other thread has tremendous credibility and I think he should be trusted) -- the point is even if the WALL ST EDGE write up occured -- because none of us have seen it -- we have no idea if it is also a pre Y2K target or later.

I am a subscriber to THE WALL ST EDGE and I can't find the TPRO report in any of the archives. My firm belief is that as a turnaround story alone TPRO is an $8 dollar stock. I believe that the Y2K hoopla brought the attention the company needed and deserved to move it to
its still undervalued price (again just looking at the turnaround situation) And I continue to believe that there is very little Y2K potential reflected in TPRO's current price -- to date no analyist has updated earnings estimates based on Y2K potential.

Here is the current problem as I see it: (by the way I should report that I am a self-avowed lurker here -- and seldom get the sense that my posts are all that welcome) but here goes:

TPRO has two followings: Many investors became involved in TPRO as a turnaround story -- they saw a $3 to $4 stock with analyists targets of $6 to $8 -- and a return to profitability under strong management and bought waiting for the rest of the world to find TPRO.

The second following is a group of people who found TPRO after the Y2K potential became known.

Karl has put his finger on exactly the problem for TPRO at this time.
In order to reach its full Y2K potential TPRO must ramp up quickly on qualified people and structure (this costs money) If TPRO spends the money it needs to ramp up -- there is a very real danger that it will miss
earnings estimates in September -- Those in the stock for its Y2K potential will welcome the news if its related to spending for ramp up of
Y2K -- but any miss in earnings now will have a negative impact on the turnaround players -- many of whom are not versed on Y2K and do not understand its potential. On the other hand if TPRO is slow to ramp up -- and meets its earnings estimates for the current quarter -- turnaround players are happy but the company then sends a damaging signal about its ability to reach its full potential in the Y2K area.

The question is can the company do both? Can it ramp up its Y2K potential and meet or exceed earnings estmates in September?

If it can -- We are looking at a massive upside explosion -- that will make the recent rise look piddly (to use Karl's phrase).

If it doesn't then I believe that right after the September earnings release -- you will see a shakeout of many of the current players in this stock -- this is not bad news -- as I think if this senario occurs and shakes out the turnarounders who don't understand Y2K potential -- it will provide a very good buying opportunity for those who choose to stay.

Either way there is very little danger in owning this stock until it gets into the high $6's or low $7's at that point a miss in earnings could shake enough people out that the stock could fall a buck or two --
but as I said above if you believe in the company's Y2K potential -- that would just present an excellent buying opportunity.

September may be a very dangerous time for holders of this stock.
(and I intend to hold)

OK back to lurking...
Trippi
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