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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (20)8/3/1997 2:06:00 PM
From: bobby beara   of 5676
 
Arik, I don't think anything is set in stone. Nostrodamos may or may not be right.

>>>All became standard consumer products. Microsoft and Intel will eventually become what GM, Kodak and Xerox are now. The PC is only 30 years old, and will reach maturity in 10 more years.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . MSFT is different, yes. like Ford in the '20s.

Yes we are in a changing marketplace and technologies are rapidly changing. Intel & Microsoft will not last as long as GM, KODAK or Xerox in this every changing world. We will have to mine the fields for the next innovative companies that will come up with solutions.

Have you studied Kondreiteff's (sp) work. He uses the 40 year major product cycle to predict crashes. It was 40 years for the railroad to end in 1873 crash, 40 years for auto to end in 29' crash. Some have said that this is 40 years of computer 1997 and this is crash, but your post clued me in that the personal computer (not the mainframe) may be the real benchmark, which would make the Millenium Crash and Armageddon 2007.

I have made many references to the Henry Ford/Bill Gates parallel on Kahuna thread. I feel this history is too hard to ignore. Although the 29' chart patterns the 87-97 chart, the historical significance doesn't. I believe we are in the 1927 time frame right now. In late 27 and early 28 Henry Ford had to shut his assembly line down because the All Black Model T had become passe as so many female customers wanted color and style. Chevy came out with these products that appealed to that market segment. This really upset the APPLEcart -g- in Detroit and there was despair and a market correction. Later in 28' the Model A was introduced for a great comeback for Ford and the market was off and running again to the peak. I believe we are looking at similar occurence of events here.

I believe Apple computer is the historical parallel to Chevrolet. Thats why I'm hitting everyone over the head with this Apple thing. It is of upmost importance that we convince Steven Jobs to accept the helm at Apple by pushing the share price up on Monday.

What do you think?
-Bob
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