>>The time to make a call is after the deal and ASCO>>
That's one of the problems being an analyst, I suppose. They have to make calls even when they would have preferred to remain silent.
In a way I can understand Harr, even though I believe he is too cautious. The early approval may well bring in a couple of extra dollars this year, but most analysts base their share price projections on the company's status far out in the distant future. And in that perspective it will not matter much if Velcade was approved in May or in July.
>>Why is Harr so anxious to make a call in front of this deal, since the approval comes before the deal rather than vice versa, strengthening MLNM's position? I>>
Perhaps his Morgan Stanley would like to avoid getting investment banking business from MLNM. :-). Or they have been excluded from the possibility to offer very expensive "advice". Or he doesn't like Levine.
He seems to have made up his mind, though. Never consider the positives. Here is a clip I found on the web.
Fast track thrills, aids Millennium
by Jennifer Heldt Powell
Tuesday, March 11, 2003
Federal regulators granted a priority review for Millennium Pharmaceutical Inc.'s experimental bone cancer treatment, putting it on the fast track.
If approved, the Cambridge company's Velcade will be the first new bone cancer treatment in more than 30 years.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration grants priority review to drugs that meet unmet needs. About 14,000 Americans are diagnosed annually with multiple myeloma, which damages bones and weakens the immune system.
``The agency's decision to grant the application priority review status underscores the potential therapeutic benefit of Velcade and represents a significant step toward the company's global mission of developing novel treatments in areas of significant unmet needs,'' said Barry Greene, Millennium's general manager of oncology.
Under the status, FDA review should be reduced to six months from 10. The agency's decision came six weeks after the company filed in the United States and the European Union.
Shares of Millennium rose 41 cents, to $7.41. The stock has fallen 69 percent in the past 12 months.
``While it's good news, it was widely anticipated,'' said Steven Harr, a Morgan Stanley analyst, to Bloomberg news.
The company, which has been unprofitable, expects to break even in 2006.
Sales of the drug may reach $250 million within five years, according to analysts. Millennium is already building a sales force for the new treatment and plans to hire 75 to 100 people in the next three months.
Velcade represents a new approach to treating multiple myeloma, which afflicts an estimated 40,000 Americans. It is designed to block chemical messengers within cells that signal uncontrolled growth. The drug is being tested against other cancers, including metastatic colorectal cancer and nonsmall-cell lung cancer.
After ASCO (or licensing deal) he will of course have to revisit the matter.
Erik |
