Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (33718)	5/14/2003 6:41:44 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 74559

KastelCo, <<I'm a little leery of PWI>> I will likely model Vermilion and Provident in the next few days based on their 1st quarter report. Vermilion work will be tough because (a) the restructuring charge in Q1, and (b) the inclusion of Trinidad interest (high reserve but low production ramp), but I may use 50% of Aventura as embedded value instead of counting the income balance sheet consolidation (1st Q report has enough details to strip out Aventura consolidated numbers. VET, for some silly patriotic reason, is my largest energy trust position. I did not want direct ownership of Aventura because it seemed expensive and it is a VET controlled entity. Based on my analysis so far, Enerplus and NCE Petro are better value than PWI, and without detailed analysis, VET seems best of all because of Trinidad exposure via publicly listed Aventura, due to visibility. Chugs, Jay

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