Pete,
Not overly bullish. There was a bullish trend change in March and for those willing to have played it, they're up by 20% or so, with the possibility of further gains ahead after some sort of consolidation. Conversely, for those that have stayed short, they're down an equal per cent. That's an interesting article you linked. Imo, it leads me to believe that the Fed is serious about keeping interest rates low and doing whatever is necessary to prevent a significant period of disinflation leading to outright deflation. Sure, it mentions the risks of deflation, but any body with an ear to the ground of the markets has given that some thought. "Will the U.S. economy go the way of the Japan's twenty year secular bear?" I doubt it. For one, we have the experience of Japan to guide us. Second, our Fed has done a major study of Japan's deflationary period in order to make sure it doesn't happen here. This is a good thing as it is proper to study worst case scenarios in order to prevent them from occurring. But what choice are you left with in the end? Do you want to bet that we will end up worse or equally as bad as Japan's economy? Once again I doubt it. Unmistakably, we have been in a bullish uptrend since early March. Why not play it? I've been mostly bearish over the past couple of years, and played the short side. But now, that I see a greater possibility of higher prices rather than lower, why not play that also. After every thing is said and done, it all boils down to prices regardless of what the indicators portend. If the price action shows me I'm on the wrong side of the trend, I'll change my thinking and the side I'm investing on. I have my trading and investing techniques all goosed up at this point in time<g>. Luckily, I've been on the right side of the trend, hope it continues. But once again as far as that article goes, you can interpret it negatively or positively. Remember, all bull trends climb a wall of worry, and there sure is a lot of worry out there. And without intending to be inconsiderate of your thoughtfulness, that type of thinking is a big part of why I think this rally has further to go than most of us realize. Time will tell and I wish you good luck! |
