The caveat is that predicting elections even a week before is just speculation (unless it's the whore, ZOGBY, trying to sell "feel good" polls regardless of what they need to say).
Every presidential election is different from the one before. That means the talk about "Florida" by the demagogues on the left is meaningless, the ability of the Sneak, Clinton to slime his way through is meaningless, and Bush's huge advantages, 18 months out, could be different at some point in time.
My instinct is developed from watching the election process from 2 to 3 years out since 1964, and studying most of the prior ones through the 20th century. You can't control any election that's still a year away, but Bush has steadily built up advantages, as perceived by 70% to 80% of the public, while his (and our) enemies have done the exact opposite. I have NEVER seen the Democratic party so self-damaged in its entire history (other than, perhaps, 1859/60). And I have NEVER seen them such in dire straits WITH NO APPARENT WAY OUT, until NOW.
It would take a HUGE WORLD-WIDE CHANGE of MASSIVE PROPORTIONS for the Dems to have even the slightest chance of beating Bush in 2004. And such an unknown is, of course, always possible... |
