Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (33806)	5/16/2003 12:12:57 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Hi Jay - not too many times - (50 day ma over 200 day ma) in the 1930 -1932 decline. I don't think we are in a bull market, but a VERY big bear market rally. It won't end until after the next rate cut by the FED and ECB, both of which may show up soon. I expect the next big stage in this game is inflation, already showing up in energy prices, agricultural commodites, and other places. May not show up in the Consumer price indexes until next year. Otherwise we are looking at a Japan outcome. Remember, the FED has weapons of mass printing, and they will use them. I guess that makes Beranake the Kim Ill Jong of monetary policy... I think gold won't really move until 2004 or after - but I have a little NEM anyway. MIR up today to resistance level near $3.50. I expect more bouncing. I also bought a little more today. Am looking at other beat up utilities, like CMS and ILA - these are much yuckier than CNP, CPN, WMB, RRI, MIR. Lot more debt to assets, more BK or very bad re-fi risk. But lower stock prices mean greater percentage upside possible.

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