Hello Maurice, What is happening in New Zealand?
Let me tell you quickly what is happening in Hong Kong. It will not take more than a moment.
Precisely nothing is happening in Hong Kong, other then meandering along the path of financial-excess clearing and monetary-swamp draining as is our neighbor Japan, and economic-differential equalizing with our other neighbor China. Yes, we are suffering the worst of two worlds.
We Hong Kongers are, in the face of of our dire circumstances, confident of salvation. We will be saved by your idol, the Maestro, as that latter day Doctor Frankenstein makes progress towards driving the real interest rate to large negative numbers, sending jolts of energy through the moribund real estate market hopefully before that play reaches the point of no return, and injecting pulses of life into other no less real but long dead stuff, such as oil, gas, and that one money which rules over all cash, gold.
Speaking of gold, we see nothing but good news that the world is vaguely aware of but not noticing as yet.
Chinese retail investors will be able to trade gold bars, wafers, and bullion, along side that other most noble of metals, platinum. This, together with the soon to be New York and Sydney IPO-ed exchange traded physical gold that is jointly sponsored by the World Gold Council and The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (“HSBC”), means the paper gold hoard I have accumulated will now gain much liquidity, a lot of visibility, many imitations, and almost 24 hours a day and six days per week trading, just like my precious Softbank once was. I think gold will do considerably better than Softbank, while on the way up, and that is the only side of the graph we should care about.
Oh, yes, and the best of all, under establishment charter, the paper gold accumulated under the exchange-traded programs are backed physical ounce for paper ounce and are not to be leased to the other evil short-speculators.
Can you imagine the squeeze that may be coming our way, augmented by some of the biggest momentum traders in the world, the Chinese, who are terrified of their government’s fiat printing, and are no more happy with Greensputin’s dictate publishing.
Greensputin will be proven right, that gold will keep Central Bankers more honest than they are otherwise capable of or likely to.
A popular newsletter published by CLSA, written by Christopher Wood, titled “Greed & Fear”, has a target of USD 3,400 per ounce for gold in this new bull market cycle. I do not know where these guys pull the numbers from, but I will start to lighten up starting at USD 2,xxx:0)
The other popular newsletter, by Marc Faber, named “Gloom, Boom, Doom”, is also counting on gold as a savior, but does not give a target price, presumably because as gold becomes more precious and expensively priced, it becomes still more desired.
Shifting attention to the lesser cash of our planet, I plan to lighten up on my AUD hoard at some near-term point, because it, and its cousin, the Kiwi, are living on time borrowed from the USD, as the folks down-under are wallowing in current account deficit, and not much of anything else.
In a world that is setting currency grinding against currency, each, in turn, will take its round in the grinder. Your money’s turn is coming up.
I was heavy in Euro and AUD last year, weighted in AUD and CAD right now, and now I must quickly figure out what to convert my AUD into.
No, I do not think I will do the Q trade, because it is too obviously a value-ambush wrapped inside a liquidity-trap ;0)
I am looking at this strange and possibly toxic brew of chaos and entropy, Indian banks, as they, with their mortgage lending future still ahead of the entire Indian nation, may be worth more of a wager than Q:
HDFC Bank finance.yahoo.com
State Bank of India finance.yahoo.com
ICICI Bank finance.yahoo.com
I figure, with new possibilities of relocating now the higher paying service jobs of Wall Street analysis and later perhaps even backroom loan processing, medical research, and legal whatever from the US to India, more Indians will be buying homes.
A BBR threader once chastised me for first knocking the Japanese and then the Indians, little did she realize that I did so because I am democratic in my evaluation. She probably thought I was dogmatic. I will soon demonstrate my democratic nature by casting an investor vote for the world’s largest democracy and skip a ballot for the world’s most powerful one, as I had started some wagers in Japan, the world’s rich democracy look-alike. I wonder if she is casting her cash hoard these days in the market place, exercising her duty to vote how it counts?
Another BBR threader once thought that people had no place to invest besides the US. He was obviously wrong, as I demonstrated again and once more, in alphabetic order, in Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, and even Zimbabwe. Funnily enough, I can genuinely claim to have trumped Warren Buffett in the case of Petro China;0) I really want to know whether he still believes Echelon is useful in securing tranquility, as opposed to keeping the innocents under observation tabs? Speaking of tranquility, first Riyadh booms, then Casablanca kabooms, where next?
A third BBR threader once believed that the big caps are the answers to babyboomer prayers. Well, the big caps will like meander between hell and purgatory until the babyboomers must sell them in earnest preparation for whatever they can no longer buy with money extracted from the emptied home residence ATMs. I am curious whether he will sell during this index futures driven up-ramp?
It is perhaps too bad that above three threaders do not apparently hang out here at BBR anymore and we are left to our bearish selves, bullish-ly buying gold this, platinum that, and energy the other, without counter-balancing posts to temper our ways.
I am figuring that investing is all about risk and reward, and, as far as I am concerned, there are few rewards to be claimed on the NYSE, but there are plenty of legal liability landmines, sunset industries, bankrupting companies, and insolvent pension plans to be fatally ensnared by.
I am happy that I still have much to learn about the world, given my ignorance about most matters and anti-matters. However, knock on metal, so far, so few surprises, as all developments seem like night follow day, greed tagging along behind fear, and bigger booms leading to larger dooms.
Life is beautiful and I am having a ball in SARS infected and depression paralyzed Hong Kong.
Back to my original question, what’s up in New Zealand? Anything? Or just samo samo:0)
Could it be the eventual case that I adore your idol Sir Greenspan even as I speak ill of him at this nasty time, and you will learn to despise my benighted Maestro Greensputin even as you idolize him now. What a possibility for a dramatic twist in the BBR script and a striking turn in the Q plot?
Let me put you at ease and make CB happy at the same time, and state, without if and/or buts, that I am delighted with Maestro Greensputin’s effort, and am doubly happy with Professor Bernankaput’s intentions. Crank that machine! The faster, the better!!
Chugs, Jay |
