Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1895322

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.490

+3.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Brad C. Dunlap who wrote (104)	8/3/1997 6:58:00 PM
From: Vector1	of 645

Brad and PB (Max), I am saddened at how this thread has disintergrated. I have no interest or the time to correct the paranoid and frankly ignorant posts by Haolin or David. I have enjoyed both of your posts and believe AVIR is an interesting albeit risky long term bet. I have done a fair bit of research on the Company and thought I would share some of it with you guys. In the future we may want to move the discussion to the VD portfolio thread where we all can benefit form a number of extremely diligent and bright participants. To Haolin and others I wish you luck. You will need it. AVIR Positives: 1. Management team. This is an important qualitative factor to me and the AVIR team is very good, most of which were recruited by the CEO Leighton Reed who with Alex Zaffaroni was the cofounder and untill 1992 the Chief Oprating officer of Affymax. 2. Scientific Advisory Board. Another qualitative factor but one I always look at. AVIR's board is truly outstanding and includes: Ed Mocarski chairman of Microbiology at Stanford, Ed Kieff, chairman of Virology at Harvard, John Lderberg, Nobel Prize winner in 1992 in microbiology and most importantly Hunein Maasab the inventor of the cold adapted Flu Virus. 3. Relationship with University Of Michigan. The University of Michigan is a leader in Virology and has been by far the leader in development of the cold adapted flu vaccine. The trade sectets and know how that is the essence of this arrangement is what will protect AVIR's intellectual property. Although I would rather have broad patent protection I have become comfortable with the protection AVIR has. Yes there are other potential Flu Vaccines including an oral vaccine. One of the negatives of vaccine companies is the long product development and approval cycle. A competitive product is many many years away. Unfortunately so are AVIR's other products. 4. Size of Market. 80 million a year. This is a large market. Jay Silverman at Robby Stephens believes AVIR will be able to achieve premium pricing for the vaccine because much of the health care worker cost can be taken out and a nasal vacine is more desireable. By the way he increased his price target after the clinical results came out to 31. His estimate is that they will be able to charge 12- 15 per treatment and the market will be grown as a result of the ease of delivery. My tolder just woke up. More later. V1

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