Don, I did not know what TA was in 2000. And I still know very little about it, but I am studying and learning. I do use a set of technical skills that I learned from Larry Williams, and have adapted to help me trade futures, although I am short the dollar based on fundamentals purely.
I sold almost everything between January and February, 2000 ... (1) because market movement looked so entirely illogical to me (especially the Nasdaq that February), and (2) as a relative newcomer to investing, I was scared to death that I would lose the gigantic profit I had made in Sun Microsystems since May, 1997.
At age 52 in 1997, I needed to make a big something out of a little something ... and after studying investing for 9 months full-time (and just scratching the surface, as you had already won your 172nd award ... <g>), I took the risk with SUNW with a P/E of 17 at the time, wonderful rocketing profits, about to set a new all time price high, continuous upward price waves and a great in-your-face promoter of a CEO named Scott McNealy. My attitude was, I/we will never retire on what we had, and if we had to start over, we could and would.
Every penny I could get my hands on went into SUNW that spring of 1997. Was I lucky? ... you betcha. Will I ever do anything like that again? ... never. Do I ever recommend that strategy to anyone else? ... no way.
The thing I will remember most about that winter is that I would sell my entire position, and SUNW would drop 4 or 5 points in the next week or so, and I would buy it all back. It then would go up 4 or 5 points, and I would sell it all again. It happened 3 or 4 times before I stayed out. But that is how I got the heavy cream even though SUNW did not actually peak until about August.
The experience changed a lot in my life, and last September, after living in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, California, and then back to Massachusetts, we sold our overpriced Massachusetts home and moved our entire, but small family, back to State College, PA where my wife and I met as Penn State undergraduates in 1964.
We have always wanted to live within walking distance of the Penn State campus, and now we do ... and we love it.
We are blessed and very very lucky, and I retired to become a full-time student of investing. I trade futures mostly now, and have since mid-2000.
Not bad for someone who did not know anything about investing in 1996. I am still shaking my head.
For the next few years, and since overall macroeconomic fundamentals look about as bad as they can, I have to believe that no matter how extended this equity rally gets, the lows are not in yet, probably not even close to being in.
I'm heavily short the dollar (and have been), long gold, long wheat (all with very profitable stops in place) and long NEM and VLNC (already removed most of my cost of my position there) and 61% overall in cash in 12 month T-bills.
If we get to Dow 16,000 by the the end of 2004, I will have to admit that we are in a new bull market ... and I will kiss your feet and those of my bud J.T. - but the two of you will have to come to State College for the ceremony ... <g> ... and the answer is NO, I will only kiss the ass of a spectacular woman of my selection!
Ken Wilson |
