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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Larry S. who wrote (727)5/18/2003 10:48:03 PM
From: Larry S.   of 972
 
Dan, et al,

There was nothing in Barron's this past couple of weeks concerning PMs. But one of Rukeyser's guests (Frank Capiello (sp)) recommended this past Friday that gold be sold. He sees the dollar rebounding and gold falling. I don't recall him being right about gold or the dollar. Kudlow is still calling for an increase in money supply necessary push gold to at least $400.

Lease rates continue to fascinate me. Kitko updated the rates several times this past week and the one-year rate was down with each rally in the POG. There is clearly no shortage of gold to lease for almost nothing.

I note that Sinclair is looking for a correction in the POG before it continues its rise.

Last, the dollar took a large hit this evening and gold jumped with reports that the G7 won't try to rescue the dollar. I'm not assuming that the report is right and we may see a correction in both the dollar and gold this week.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 05/08, the Barron's GMI was at 461.51, up from the previous week's 449.07. With the POG up at 347.90 (05/09), the ratio was up slightly at 1.33.

On 05/15, the Barron's GMI was at 468.72, up from the previous week's 461.51. With the POG up at 355.00 (05/16), the ratio was down slightly at 1.32.

A year ago the ratio was 1.54. The GMI was substantially higher, while the POG was much lower, indicating a lot more optimism.
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