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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (241263)5/19/2003 8:36:27 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
Not even the WS geniuses know what is going on. Read Morgan Stanley ... they are also confused and blame the "statistical models" for erring

Message 18953983

Third, the ECB may have a particular fair valuation model in operation, we suspect. In our fair valuation exercise, only two out of the 12 models we computed suggested that the EUR was not overvalued. These two models were the ‘RID’ -- the real interest differentials -- models. The average fair value of these two models is 1.18. In light of how ‘calm’ the ECB has appeared regarding EUR/USD, it is possible that their valuation model is of the RID type. If that is the case, in the ECB’s mind, the EUR has just reverted to its fair value, after being undervalued for most of the last three years.
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