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Non-Tech : Claire's Stores (CLE) NYSE
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To: jason D. who wrote (383)8/3/1997 8:52:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit   of 619
 
Jason, I have evidence to back up my position - evidence that you have not read. You have testimonials to back up yours (many of which I've read). From an objective point of view, which position is stronger?

I believe that the most compelling model for the stock market is the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis, which allows for market-beating investment techniques such as utilizing the "January effect" or the "Value-Line effect". The Value Line effect is particularly interesting because academics were initially skeptical, but several well documented studies revealed that it was statistically significant, and consistently outperformed the market. This observation lead many to revise their views of the "efficient market hypothesis". The point is that their position changed on the basis of the evidence.

However, I completely reject (due to lack of evidence in favor of and lots of evidence against) the notion that stock price movements have memory. This is in essence what you must argue to favor TA. I repeat, there is not one iota of statistical evidence favoring this position. If you have evidence (not testimonials) to the contrary, I would be happy to read it, and if I find it compelling I would certainly change my view. Can you make the same statement?

You would do yourself a great favor by reading and understanding what those who have studied this subject have to say before forming your opinions and castigating those who have studied this subject in statistical detail.

Paul
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