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Biotech / Medical : ABTI Alpha-Beta Technology
ABTI 0.200+99,900.0%Jun 17 12:34 PM EST
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To: Rosemary who wrote ()8/3/1997 11:57:00 PM
From: Eduardo Canto   of 572
 
Here is some statistical analysis:

ph II serious and/or life threatening infections data
(source table 11, p1209 Archives of Sugery vol 129)

treated= all patients who received 0.5 or 1 or 2 mg/kg of Betafectin
control= all patients who recieved either placebo or a dose of
betafectin previously shown to have no effect (0.1mg/kg)

..........# infected patients.......#patients without
......................................infection

treated ........1.............................31
control ........7.............................25

relative risk= 0.14 (if you were treated with betafectin your chances of getting a serious or life threatening infection decrease by 86% as compared to no treatment; put differently Betafectin reduced serious infections 7 fold)

p=0.02 (statistically significant, in other words Betafectin has a 98% chance of being better than placebo)

So what are the chances of Betafectin reducing serious infections in the phase III based on the phase II data:

% reduction in ...............approx probability
serious infections..........of such result in ph III

45%.............................95%
60%.............................90%
70%.............................80%
84%.............................60%

the above numbers were calculated using the test-based method of calculating confidence intervals

Correct me if I am wrong but it seems as if the odds are in the favor of Betafecting working.

E.C.
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