Not to flog the sentiment horse here, but I haven't noticed extreme volume in LEAPs, at least not today.
quotes.nasdaq.com
What I have noticed is growing near-term put interest in the QQQs (June and July, and September's starting to pile up too). Yesterday put a small dent in that, with June 28 O/I drawing close to even, but puts outnumber calls at 27 and below for at least the next couple of months. It's hard to be a bear on tech under the circumstances, even with other sentiment measures being giddy and the market showing signs of a turn here. It's hard to be a bull too, because calls dominate at 29 and above. If we're going to get big down, it's going to have to come with hedging. Same for a big move up. Otherwise the pressure appears to be for a range between 27 and 29.
On another note, I was looking at HP's earnings and the currency translation issue, and wanted to bounce around some numbers. The USD is down 15% yoy, taking a 3-month average of HP's second quarters in 2002 and 2003. HP's revenues were flat. They get at least 55% of their business from overseas, so they had at least an 8% gain because of currency translation, correct? So real revenues were down more than 4%, and probably more than that because Europe accounts for 40% of HP's business. I'm sure I got something wrong, but wanted to put it out there to see what others came up with. |
