First.....don't know whether you saw my edit, where I added that I was not ruling out further pullback ( and trading ) here. I indicated yesterday several pullback levels based on SMAs, FIBS, and other such TA.
Clearly, a relatively short UT line - and a channel - have been broken here, and that's why I was looking for some pullback.
You have a point in asking how far down we have to go before recognizing a break in a longer timeframe UT. I guess I get somewhat subjective here when I say that I would begin to have doubts when we pulled back more than about 62% of the latest upswing - assuming that would exceed "normal" expectations. So, looking at NDX, that would take us to the 1060 area............But - you're right - that at that point I would look back to the UT line from the Oct lows which comes in at about 1020 or so ( as of today - and will,of course, be rising)
Once again, this may be boiling down to that time-frame problem we've differed about before. I am focusing on trends in weeks - months- in defining uptrends/downtrends. That certainly does not preclude shorter and tradeable ups and downs - over days and even weeks - but these swings do not necessarily define the basic and major trends in force.
(Tough trying to rebut your points....one thing my little needles do seem to do do, however, is to get a good statement of your views....which, of course,highly valued...and - I'm sure - useful to all on this Board ).....Cheers |
