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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: macavity who wrote (6973)	5/22/2003 1:11:52 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) of 33421

"Reverse" indicator -- CNBC's Ron Insana / obnoxious report on how hedge funds are making "perhaps billions of dollars" -- To back-track a bit ... Either about 12 hours or 36 hours before gold peaked (very briefly) around $390 an ounce (in overseas markets, during the middle of the night (U.S. time)) (back in late January / early February) (I cannot tell the exact date from a chart I am looking at) ... Ron Insana talked about how hedge funds were temporarily not particularly interested in (normal) stocks at all, because they were making SO much money trading gold (and gold stocks) from the long side. The (12 or 36 hours later) $390 "spike" was followed by a nearly continuous decline to about $320 (fairly quickly). Today ... Ron Insana talked about how hedge funds are making "perhaps billions of dollars" going long lots of long-dated U.S. Treasury securities, since the Fed and Alan Greenspan have basically guaranteed that "curve flattening" trades will be consistent money makers. MY PREDICTION : Given how "cocky" and obnoxious this report was, I assume that U.S. Treasuries should start plunging VERY soon. You heard it here first ... cash quote (5:00 P.M. today) 5 3/8% of 2/15/31 closed at : 116-14 bid, 116-15 ask with y.t.m. of 4.35 Jon.

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