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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing
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To: austrieconomist who wrote (11365)5/22/2003 10:17:54 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht  Read Replies (1) of 39344
 
Think we had the top to top cycle around May 29 or June 4.

Don't take the dates as granted. Observed the cycles for a while. The mean is correct, statistically, but can vary. For example, the 8-month cycle can be as short as 5.5-months or as long as 10-month (due to extraneous events).

Also, tops (and bottoms) might be intermediates, followed by more extreme readings (higher or lower) as time passes.

IMHO, all one could say is that we are near the end of a cycle, the next one can be either an up or a down one.
Next cycle can price a low higher than this peak, next cycle high can be lower than this cycle low.
End of a cycle is just a period when one should more carefully analyze other indicators for continuation or reversal.
Never rely on one indicator only.<vbg>
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