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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use
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To: ild who wrote (1699)5/22/2003 3:24:17 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (2) of 4912
 
Date: Thu May 22 2003 13:59
trotsky (frustrated) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for recent information on refis and mortgage credit go read Doug Noland on prudentbear. he has the latest data all listed, and it's truly breathtaking stuff. i'll give you a synopsis: the mortgage credit bubble is in full terminal blow-off mode. and the US banking system is now heavily weighted toward mortgage credit in general, the percentage of mortgage assets on the banks books has exploded to 57% of assets, up from less than 13% in 1950. at the same time foreclosures have just hit a 30 year high, and the mortgage bubble apparatus tries to outrun non-performing assets by creating fresh loans at a furious pace. it's practically a guarantee that we will end up exactly where Japan has ended up.

Date: Thu May 22 2003 15:13
trotsky (RIP, @Fed and LT rates) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the Fed CAN cap the long bond rate if it wants to, since in theory it CAN become the entire market. of course such a strategy would ultimately be self-defeating , for obvious reasons. for instance, what would happen to the rest of the debt markets if the Fed's 'reflation' efforts were deemed to be successful? soon it would have to step in and monetize those too. in the end, everything would be monetized, a la John Law...the currency would then collapse, and the Fed would lose its power. the whole 'unconventional measures' shebang is a harebrained plan that only a bunch of bureaucrats could have dreamt up.
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