Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1896777

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.490

+3.4%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Vector1 who wrote (107)	8/4/1997 1:49:00 AM
From: Vector1	of 645

Now that the kids are asleep I can finish my post. Positives continued: 5. Remarkable phase III results. Every medical professional I have spoken with is impressed with AVIR's clinical results. The vaccine has the potential of not only being easier to administer but have greater efficacy. The combination potentially gives the ability to premium price and gain a large market share. 6. Expansion of the market. One of AVIR's target groups are obviously children. Children currently make up a small portion of the 80 million vaccines given today. AVIR has the potential to own this market. I asked our pediatrician about the flu vaccine. She is part of a large practice group and was aware of the nasal vaccine and was very excited about it. There is little doubt in my mind that parents will provide their children with a safe and efficacious nasal flu vaccine. I think someone noted that the vaccine has to be changed every year. While year to year efficacy will change this is actually a big positive. Unlike other vaccines, the flu vaccine has to be administered each year. 7. Who will pay the cost. Yes the flu rarely kills heathy people, but it does make them very sick and causes them to miss work. That is why many employers pay for vaccine programs. The loss of productivity is very expensive. I believe many emloyers will pay for the nasal flu vaccine for their employees just as they currently pay for injcted vaccines. The only difference is that a far greater number of employees will paticipate. In addition if AVIR is successful in gettingthe rec of the American College of Pediatrics insurance companies will have a hard time not paying for childrens vaccines. 8.Deep Pipeline. A thorough reading of the recent form s-1 describes an impressive array of new vaccine targets and programs. The most promising one is a vaccine for Epstien Barr. 9. Price action since the announcement of the offering. Actually this is not a secondary offering but a registration statement for a primary offering. All the registered shares being offered are by the company. It is typical for a second primary for venture capital players to continue to sell their shares. The VCs have made many times their original investment by now. Contrary to what has been expressed underwriters generally do not try and push a stoock prior to announcing an offering and typically taget selling stock at what they believe will be a discount to the normalized trading range. they want their key investors to lock in a profit. OF course it does not always work out that way. Usually a stock pulls back a little pending the sale but in this case AVIR has shown a lot of technical strenghth particularly given how much share appreciation has occurred. Negatives: 1. The product has not yet been approved. More results are due and in some respects AVIR will be relying on data generated before the were involved. A lot can go wrong on the road to clinical approval. If this happens the stock will tumble. 2. Lack of patent protection. As discussed earlier I am not particularly concerned because of the long approval process for competing products and the knowhow licence from the University of Michigan. 3. Long approval process for other products. While AVIR has an impressive array of vaccine technology the approval process for a vaccine takes a long time and is very expensive. Good luck to all. V1

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