Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 173.20

-3.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Michael Allard who wrote (129212)	5/23/2003 10:03:38 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) of 152472

Michael - Not only are we comparing apples with oranges (both fruits), but also fruits and vegetables. There is "competition" and there is "collaboration". One augments the other. One subtracts from the other. The issue isn't WiFi "versus" CDMA, it is "usefulness of 3G if WiFi is pervasive" versus "Usefulness of 3G if WiFi didn't exist in the first place". There's this toll-booth on the only highway to a place everyone wants to go. We know folks want to be on the island, we know they are willing to pay a toll to get there and we know how many of them there are. So we can figure out what the owners of that tollbooth should expect to put in their pockets. And everything is grand. Ok, along comes a paving crew and starts to lay down asphalt right beside the toll-booth. With grand plans to build another way to get to the island. Ok, says the owners of the toll-booth, this isn't a problem. With a brave face they say "it validates our claim that billions of people want to get to the island". "Neither of our roads is large enough to carry all of the traffic, and so therefore people will want to use our road as well as the new road". "Our road is 4 lanes all the way, while this one narrows to one lane and occasionally has to merge onto ours where it is not yet complete". "We do not compete, we complement each other in making sure tourists get to the island". All this rhetoric is true. But what about the amount of money that the toll booth owners can expect to collect? What if the alternate route is completed? The issue isn't one of CDMA versus WiFi, it's CDMA versus OFDM. And Qualcomm doesn't own very much IP when it comes to OFDM. At the moment, all eyes are on 3G technology while investment payback is encompassing periods that include successor generations. It is important to start evaluating where 4G and 5G technologies are likely to end up, and ascertain Qualcomm's grip on this business. John

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