I had issues with a number of statements made in the release.
take this comment for instance
"While we recognize it is possible that CheckFree could improve its business relationship with First Data and Microsoft before the revenue minimums expire, we also note that this would imply the company's expenses would be increasing in order to account for the additional services required," Merrill said.
with the roll out of thee Genesis platform, ckfr's economics of scale actually make it cheaper by potential increase of transactions.
And from what you quote:
Another source of concern, according to Merrill Lynch, is the increasingly strong presence of larger banks in the online bill-payment arena. Competitors could include Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and Wachovia (WB:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), although it isn't clear when that threat will materialize.
Okay, we have been hearing of the competition since pretty much CKFR started doing business.
At last count, I believe there have been no less than six other attempted(and failed) projects by competitive businesses.
None of them stronger than that of MSFT, or BoA.
How about Integrion too which had IBM working the controls.
Failed miserably.
And we know Wells fargo has been struggling to get their own gig going but still can't compete or make it profitable the way CKFR does. and they'd rather scrap the whole internet thing instead of coming back to CKFR. That's already been factored in.
However, as far as Wachovia, well, as I remembered(and checked out to confirm)
Wachovia is still using ckfr checkfreecorp.com
Bottom of the page of "financial services organizations"
Anyhow, I could go on and on about why I think ML downgraded.
If it is merely because of valuation why not just say it as it is?
Why bring up old threats from vaporware wantabes?
Still, apparently the downgrade is having the desired affect as da' Monkey continues to sell off.
Who knows EP, we may just get our buying opt some time next week.
*On a seperate note, I have watched with some concern as BoA has been selling their CKFR stock.
That was one of my biggest beefs when Pete & co. gsve up parts of the company.
I looked at as sort of an extortion type thing knowing full well niether BoA, MSFT or FDC would be strong shareholders.
And if I had to agreee with ML on one issue, I do question the loyality from all three(FDC, MSFT BAC) to the long term relationship towards CKFR.
Of course I am still a FIRM believer we never needed to give up so much of the company in the first place and the sooner BoA unloads, the better.
We still have them on contract to bring in a certain number of new accounts.
I don't expect them to balk on that. |
