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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: carranza2 who wrote (98941)5/23/2003 2:56:29 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
C2,

You are thinking too globally. I prefer to try to break the electorate up into more manageable thought chunks.

1. Southern white voters aren't exactly the right chunk but will do. Their flight from the Dem party to the Reps from late 60s forward is one of the great seismic shifts in American politics. Less covered is the increase in black voters in the south as witnessed by the number of local governments, once run by whites now run by blacks. Clearly not as big a factor as white flight but still worth keeping in mind.

2. The next chunk is the Hispanic vote--the population is increasing and their willingness to vote is as well. The Rep failure in California with this bloc of voters is well documented. Whether that persists or not is hard to tell.

3. The degree to which the Reps are increasingly dependent on a hard right electoral base. I'm surprised, in this regard, that the Dems have not done more with this point as regards judicial appointments. The loss of women's reproductive rights if Roe v Wade were overturned, I think, would be a barn burner of a political issues, outside the Rep base. And I think the Bush folk live in fear this might happen. Another measure of the degree to which they are locked into a base.

4. I find it helpful to think of the electorate as a third, a third, and a third. Bush is now taking the middle third pretty strongly on terrorisms fears. That is the key. Should his administration drop that ball, for whatever reason, that middle third is very much up for play.
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