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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (74476)5/23/2003 3:23:10 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
aj, this is only one person's humble opinion, but i'm betting that you (and others) will be surprised by who comes out ahead in the CVS / RAD steel cage match in 5-years time.

CVS is in not nearly the financial shape that people think they are. despite spending a cumulative $3.9 billion on new stores and acquisitions in the last 4 years (which is more than the cash they have generated), cash generation (net income + depreciation & amortization) is only $114mm higher than it was 4 years ago. let's see -- spend $3.9 billion for an incremental $114mm of cash flow. doesn't sound like a very good return to me.

i actually liken CVS to McDonalds, circa early 2002. MCD had very similar financial characteristics (re-investing all the cash flow into the business, but not getting any return for it in terms of increased cash generation) before the bottom fell out last year.

Cheers
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