1000 deaths in the offing. who.int
Cumulative deaths and weekly deaths graphs:
x = 10 deaths.
Cumulative deaths
26 Feb ?
..5 Mar x
12 Mar x
19 Mar x
26 Mar xx
...2 Apr xxxxx
...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.21 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[666]
.23 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[689]
On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week.
x = 10 deaths.
z = early days, fewer than 10 per week.
26 Feb z
..5 Mar z
12 Mar z
19 Mar z
26 Mar x
...2 Apr xxx
...9 Apr xxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx
..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx
.14 May xxxxxxxxx
.21 May xxxxxxxx
.28 May xxxxxxx [estimate extrapolated from the last week at 11 a day]
Total cases 8117
Number of deaths 689
Number of recovered 4326
With 3791 still sick, and a 10% death rate, that means another 380 will die, just of those already sick. 689 + 380 = 1069.
With 70 new infections a day right now, that's another 7 people a day doomed right now who aren't yet sick [or haven't been reported anyway].
If the infection runs another 150 days, [5 months], that'll mean about another 1000 dead.
Therefore, there are going to be at least 2000 dead, not to mention 20,000 who were at least really sick and in many cases permanently injured and debilitated with reduced long term survival and life enjoyment prospects.
Then, come October, winter will close in again in the northern hemisphere, dew points will drop, people will exhale misty breath and sars will get a new lease of life.
But maybe the final tally will be more than 10%. It's seems to be [depending on what's counted as sars and what isn't] that the death rate is more like 15%. So we can expect 50% more than would occur with a 10% death rate.
That means the October total might be 3000 dead = the same number as died in the Twin Towers.
The world had better be ready for next winter.
Mqurice |
