Al Krasberg. re the COTs
It never ceases to amaze me how two people, maybe more, can look at the same thing and come away with different observations. The Commercials net short position peaked just shy of 120K on the last reporting period of January. Gold peaked in the first week of February. Can Gold go higher and the commercials get more net short, yes, and I hope so. What bulls need to see is that an increasingly large net short position is being needed to cap these rallies, not the reverse, as has been seen just recently in Silver. Will Gold go higher with an increasing net short position by the commercials, yes, if it goes higher, but the probability, the greater odds, the historical perspective is, that the otherwise favorable risk reward for the public long participant in PMs begins to contract markedly as levels that we are seeing are reached.
That's the long, short and simple of it....
A ECB rate cut is coming that will lead to a correction in the dollar, gold and miners.
sharelynx.net
See the rounding tops in Jay Gallemore's Trend Indicators for the CRB and GOLD, accompanied by waning though still high momentum. AGAIN, these are not the technical setups during which to be aggressively bullish, imho. I detect a high level of bullishness and denial that much of a correction in Gold is possible on the more public message boards. Tuesday, I'll venture, will be the end of the line for a while. Admittedly, my views reflect my positioning; I began to reduce miner and to a lesser extent E&P exposure on Friday.
chartingyourfutures.com |
