Jeff…What really got me interested in what you had to say is when you talked about Bull T/A versus Bearish T/A and why the average investor can’t seem to switch gears.
Being a trader, I have zero tolerance for losses…so much so, that if the trade isn’t profitable within the first fifteen minutes I’ll stop myself out and buy stocks that will perform to my expectations and ride it for all its worth. Personally, I caught the turn, bought the bottom-- but because I underestimated the level of the momentum in the market I unfortunately, cashed in too soon. Actually I started profit taking April 16 just before "Good Friday" because of this post #reply-18846514 -- Did I retake my positions once I realised I was wrong the following week? You bet…I didn’t let something like pride get in the way of making a buck but it certainly left me wondering.
Through all of this-- I did noticed the STO on the strong RSI stocks never fell below 50 (which is totally predictive using the ADX) – so I guessed in a sense, through trial and error that I’m just beginning to discover what you’ve already refined. Your posts on the subject probably saved me about a years worth of education at the school of hard knocks…and I haven’t even touched on the concept of a simple moving average??? see: #reply-18916460 If I would have followed this one dreadfully simple indicator I would have never sold into “strength.” Uncharacteristically, I wasn’t quick enough to switch from Bear T/A to Bull T/A and threw my swing trading rhythm out of sync with the markets and found myself being whipsawed. (…sigh)
As for what game is being played, being that I’m Canadian—I’m now having the opportunity to live with a couple of different styles of investing—STO/DB for the US markets and value investing within my own borders. Right now in Canada— because of the strength of the Loonie, exporters are being smashed. Perfectly legitimate, established manufacturing firms are having their margins squeezed and investors are dropping these stocks like hot potatoes. I think with some of these companies its being a little overdone—especially the ones that use the USD as a medium of exchange with countries that are abroad. They just have to raise their prices in compensation for the falling USD without losing their competitive edge with these overseas firms. But the Death Blow was certainly in the charts…and again your methods work here, too. But I do expect that my central bank like all “good” central banks will take this opportunity and debase our currency for the sake of the economy and the stocks will have a nice short term bounce.
One last thought on US dlr weakness…I find this surprising at how it’s having a negative effect on gold stocks, whodathunkit? Everywhere I look there’s a bag holder—hopefully they’ll hold that bag long enough for the third quarter numbers. Gold miners like Newmont will have some exceptional earnings despite the weakness in the USD. On an annualized basis for every one dollar rise in the PoG it’ll add over $4 million in earnings. The producers will shine this fall—it’ll make for one hell of a swing trade.
Investing isn’t rocket science there’s opportunity everywhere you look -- you just have to look and not think too much about it. Simplicity…
You were saying that you weren’t getting much from these boards…I don’t either, but every now and again I bump into a poster that changes my approach to speculation. The first poster to do so was SliderOnTheBlack, you are the second.
Just wanted to drop by and say thanks for your efforts.
Regards,
Frank P.
Btw, I’ll PM you a chart on a thinly traded Canuck stock with what I think has “anti-venom” potential—you can either give me a thumbs up or down, then I’ll know for sure if I understands the concept. |
