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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: russwinter who wrote (11495)	5/26/2003 8:42:21 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (3) of 39344

Russ: What you say is true based on the chart. i.e. that each time the extreme of 60k was hit, sometime thereafter the market corrected. But the trend of the commitments of the commercials has been counter to the trend of gold and it seems to me that each reversal is requiring a higher level of shorts. You may turn out to be right again, but at the last low the commercials were just under 60K contracts net short and gold has rallied from about 315 to 370 while the comms have added about 40K short. This does not strike me as a great indicator to rely on. But what do I know? I did call a short term bottom in gold near 315 and right now I think it is due for another correction. None the less this market is acting like a bull not a bear. I also suspect that the actions of the commercials has more to do with offsetting other contracts than it does with their view on the price of gold. If we don't know the nature of the other unreported contracts how can we rely on the committments? Well I guess we will see. Little joe

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