Hello Gf, <<I take it you do not worry about short term swing>> ... Yes I do, but only within the context of the big picture script, not in the sense of a day-trade.
I do realize the disconnect that, 'if it is difficult to try to see ahead a few days, why is it easier to sense what should happen within 36 months'. But, as I have done satisfactorily for myself on 12-months rolling basis within a 36 months imagination horizon, I will stay with the system until it fails me:0)
<<how about buying REITs and TIPS in a US retirement account?>>
<<REITs>> I plead ignorance.
I used to own, before the days of iDotCom and eSlashNet, the likes of Newhall Land, First Union Realty, and some other names I no longer remember. I believe the real estate capital value cycle in the USD-space is at historic high, the interest rate cycle is at historical low, and together, is not a friendly environment for real estate buys in general.
In contradiction to above, I have just committed to buying into a follow-on real estate partnership that is negotiating to buy a 22,500 sft (total floor space) retail/commercial building in Kowloon on Nathan Road. I justify the decision based on:
(a) 7.3% yield at 10-year rental/capital value cycle low,
(b) Neighborhood improvement midway to completion,
(c) Pervasive atmosphere of doom and gloom,
(d) Tourism cycle at historic low,
(e) The 5-storey building can be redeveloped to the current plot ratio,
(f) The street corner building has long street-facing frontage and perfect for billboards and such income enhancing to-do’s
(g) Family that owns the building wants out because its members have different plans,
(h) So, all considered, it must be time, or close to the time, to loot the burning house.
Can the capital value drop more? Yes.
Can the rental amount decline further? Yes.
Will there be another deal like this, for me? I do not know.
<<TIPS>> I do not like TIPS because I do not believe the inflation index to which they are tagged to.
<<in ... retirement account>> why not SJT and HGT? Or Argentine shares? or HBC, or Message 18968228 ?
Chugs, Jay |
