Papaya, TMR is the most amazing turnaround story out there IMO. Try calculating their finding costs per mcfe for '01 & '02, after adjusting for the phoney 100 BCFE they booked on one well that was later disproven. Its gotta be the largest amount of $$$ ever spent to find the smallest amount of hydrocarbons. Yet the play they have now appears to be on the other end of the spectrum, wells that take 2 weeks to drill, 2 weeks to complete, test, & hook up, and you get 10+ mmcfd with a reasonable decline rate, and their neighbor, a private company called Manti, has been hitting 2 out of 3 of theirs.
Isn't it amazing? They go from drilling 20,000 ft. wildcats that take 9 goddam months to drill, and then you get all kindsa completion problems because the pressure's so damn high, to these slam dunks. The cool thing is that the market is so pissed at TMR for their past transgressions, we're probably gonna be able to keep buying this at reasonable prices even after more good news comes out.
You may have missed the launch on KCS, but it has only begun its journey and has much further to go IMO. They are drilling a whole buncha shitty little shallow wells in this first half of the year, which in the aggregate will add a large amount of reserves & production at cheap money. These fields they are drilling out are pretty rare these days because anybody that had a field like this woulda probably drilled it out 2 years ago in the last boom. KCS couldn't since it was capital-constrained having just emerged from bankruptcy, plus the prior operations head probably figured, what's a company with damn near a quarter TCFE of reserves wanna screw around drilling wells that produce 800 mcf a day for, whereas the present guy says, screw that, I wanna drill the stuff with the best economics. |
