Biotech Stock Picking - 2003 Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Stock Picking - 2003

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To: John Metcalf who wrote (260)	5/28/2003 2:20:46 AM
From: Icebrg	of 383

John >>In real life, are you holding 'em, or cashing some out?>> I am almost ashamed to tell you that I intend to hold on for a while. Cortex and Spectrum are moonshot candidates. In this specific context their quotes were very low at our cut-off date, which makes the increase look better that it really is. They are microcaps with some opportunities. Run by decent people and not manipulators. Cortex's defining moment will be the out-licensing of the North American for some of their compounds. I have quite a number of those shares and might be tempted to reduce my holding but not yet and not completely. Spectrum is a story about rebuilding a company from nothing. As long as Raj & Co. appears to be making the right moves there is no reason to sell. There are some unconfirmed rumors that the Annual Report or possibly in a Letter to Shareholders the company is saying, that they have so far achieved three complete responses out of three possible in their EOquin trial (bladder cancer) in UK. If this indeed turns out to be correct (I am somewhat skeptical) there would be further immediate support for the company. The generics business they try to build is also very interesting. I think I could hold on to Elan for a couple of dollars more, before starting to reduce the holding. Whatever newsflow there is should be possible. The big risk is of course Antegren results. If they are bad, we might go back to 2 again. But phase II results and MLN02 results indicate that there should be at least a fair chance. Long-term I am more doubtful about Antegren, but the market doesn't care about the long-term. Ligand has enjoyed a very good run-up. I might be tempted to sell them if there are signs that the market turns sour again. The company is however just in the critical situation where they might turn profitable. That is normally a great place to be in biotchs, so I might also keep them. Long-term I believe Targretin Capsules for certain cancer types could turn out very positive. The company is doing some interesting work there, but it will most probably not effect the share price this year and maybe not next year either. Sepracor. I suppose you know the story. I will hold through the ESTORRA decision - unless we find ourselves back in the 40s or so. Medarex. Here I am disappointed. The company is not as well-managed (it appears) as I thought it was. The management gives a very shabby impression. A lot of greed etc. They have a convertible hanging over them in a couple of years time. But the share price hasn't reached it historical relation to Abgenix yet. It used to be 1,5 in Abgenix favour. It is 2 now. MDX-010 results as presented at ASCO will be important. That may turn the story around. They have their Annual Meeting today by the way. There could be some PR. They were up 12 % yesterday. Millennium. Again wait and see. I believe management has been strengthened with the arrival of Killian and Bates. The company has IMHO a lot going for them. Their handling of Velcade was impressive. Or maybe they were just lucky. I like Killian though. He seems to be extremely operative. (I watched him when he was the CEO of Cor). He will hopefully take over from Levine when the latter wants to move on. Alexion. Their time for glory will be the second half of the year when the CABG-results for pexe are announced. Erik

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