I have learned to bite my tongue rather than criticize what others say... every time I try to say someone else is wrong, I always am the one that is wrong.
So instead, I try to share why I think I am right rather than someone else is wrong... so here goes:
The markets are coming off the biggest bubble in history, bar none! While we have had some awesome drops and scary Enrons, we have had yet to REALLY wring the excesses out of this puppy yet IMHO! On top of that, in the long term, indices like the DOW and NYSE and SPY have made some absolutely huge H&S patterns which usually are 95% reliable once broken as are these. And, as VI points out, there is the derivative mess involving some things like bonds and interest rates and the USD which, if taken at face value, could be a powder keg ready to do everything in.
For the sake of the world financial systems, I hope you are right. But I am not betting any money on it at this point. For the time, I am from Missouri, and you need to show me we are out of the woods. And a 50% move up in NDX doesn't do it for me... yet.
Thanks for your point of view and for sharing it with everyone. I wish everyone would be as candid. |
