AMAT, ASML, KLAC, NVLS, ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM
4 semi equips, 2 programmable logic, 2 linear (analog) / mixed signal.
I am holding each of your equipment plays, as well as XLNX -so I wish your much success with your strategy. :-) Have you been nibbling or outright buying any/all of your great eight over the past 3 months?
RE: "deflation-itis" Technology has always been very volatile. Companies come and go as new technology supercedes old. The bubble has exacerbated this and there is and has been one of the highest levels of dislocation.
I understand and agree....but wonder whether displacement & dislocation sufficiently captures the situation. If opportunities (e.g., IT and hardware, as well as financial analysis, marketing, and some limited legal services) are being created overseas at the expense of U.S. jobs, the natural evolution might be wage compression. (For example, see siliconinvestor.com. Will these jobs come back, or is corporate America already addicted to using overseas labor to reduce overhead at the expense of white collar wages? If you assume the later, as I at times do, one natural evolution could be deflation - assuming the strength of the dollar is not artificial enhanced/devalued. I suppose I wonder if various professionals are taking 50% pay cuts to keep their employment, how can deflation not occur, ultimately? Do you perceive an employment issue eventually eating away at the U.S. economy over time? I guess my present thoughts are that we will have a jobless recovery come the second half of '03, which, however, will be profitable for shareholders, even if it might not be as sustainable as I had hoped 9-12 months ago.
New technology and technology advances are continuing and will drive the economy and the tech stock market. This is a function of time as we move away from the bubble excesses.
Might I inquire as to which areas of advances will be drivers in your mind during the upcoming upswing? I think I see a positive market but am wondering what the "next big thing" might be, other than typical growth attributable to replacement/upgrade cycle and population changes. Do you think it will be wireless or, perhaps biotech? Naturally, if you don't play with biotechs, then I will assume that would not be where your thoughts rest. Am I missing something here or is your analysis based on eventual business requirement for replacement/upgrade cycle that has been pushed out for sometime now?
I look forward to reading your reply.....SB |
