jims,
Rally looks good but here is slider's take:
From: SliderOnTheBlack Thursday, May 29, 2003 4:18 PM
Respond to of 31000
re: ["Big picture in Gold "]
One year ago today - HUI intraday high 150.30 - close 143.93
Today the HUI has traded at HUI 135-140.
...hard to argue against the failure of Goldstocks to break to new highs in one year....has not = D-E-A-D M-O-N-E-Y.... ?????
One year ago 5/29/02 versus today:
NEM $31.24 -$29.63
MDG $18.70 - $11.25
AEM $17.05 - $11.07
KRY $2.35 - .89 c
DROOY $5.19 - $2.52
GFI $15.10 - $11.44
HMY $17.28 - $13.14
CDE $1.84 - $1.32
PAAS $8.31 - $6.70
With all of the table-pounding and all of the focus of the blind-bull goldbuggers on the USD....the European stock markets have tanked while the Euro has soared and the American stock market has soared while the USD has tanked - and goldstocks are down, or flat for the last year ~
...whodathunkit ?
I'll repeat for the umpteenth time.
1. The "managed" descent of what was a "Bubble" in the USD is now - POLICY....as is should be...and that's a good thing.
2. We had a manufactured/manipulated "bubble" in the USD....this is NOT a "crash" in the USD, nor has there been a mass exodus of foreign investment from US Investments as predicted by the Blind-Bull/Goldbuggers.
3. The LOWER USD POLICY is good for most US Corporations and earnings and is one of THE primary reasons for the recent stock market rally in the US...and a lower USD is a prerequisite for stabilizing the unemployment #'s - especially in the mfg & industrial sectors.
4. The Deficit as a % of GDP is NOT indicative of significantly lower USD levels...many think 10-15% remaining downside - max ....and that is NOT going to send goldstocks to significant new highs imho...NOT "if" the US Equity market remains EITHER stable, OR bullish.
5. Continued rotation of HUGE amounts of money from the Bond Market - which is at a historic bubble level due to the unprecedented low interest rate environment....look like they will SIGNIFICANTLY delay...if not even prohibit the US Stock Market from correcting to historic value levels and new lows for the Bears.
There are huge amounts of money that will continue to rotate out of bonds....and quite amazingly; US Stocks & AMERICA - still remain the favored safe haven of global investors.
Quite surprisingly - we've seen:
- no value fishing in the NIKKEI.
- no corresponding rally in the Euro equity markets with the ramping Euro currency.
- goldstocks flat/lower for the last 52 weeks
Interesting commentary on CNBC this am about individual US "States" issuing bonds and buying stocks... Illinois & California among others....and we've got the expected prop job coming with the end of June & Q2.
I've begun to start some initial short/put positions in some stocks mentioned there - especially the iNet & Tech sector that moved much too far - too fast imho...ie: Ebay, Yahoo, Amazon, Ask Jeeves & China.com play SOHU et al... But, I've yet to start shorting the DOW, or S&P - due to what I expect will be continued Bond Money rotating to US Equities.
DOW 9500-10,000 if seen in THIS present fundamental environment will be a short...but, I'd let the Q2 window dressing and these recent moves by some States to issue Bonds and buy stocks etc... play themselves out first.
CASH & PATIENCE remain the 2 most favored weapons in the arsenal imho.
We may get another HIGH REWARD-LOW RISK shorting opp in the broad market...and one is now forming imo, in some tech & iNet stocks presently ...good enough for "initial/partial" positions anyway ...but, I'd keep the safety on for a major short play in the broad market for now.
Congrats to those that are picking their trading spots carefully and taking what the market gives you...those opps are out there. But, I do NOT see anything particularly attractive in Gold/PM's, or Energy stocks presently...either long, or short.
FWIW - here's where I am:
10% Short tech/inet
5% long Gold/PM's
5% long misc value plays
80% CASH
...and 110% focused on real-world business opps outside the market....sometimes the market pales in comparison to what realworld investments offer.
Frankly I'm rather bored by the market... it's certainly over-valued; but not broadly shortable imho - because I do NOT underestimate either the BULLS "willingness" (we need at least one more, if not two - MAJOR broad market downdrafts to signifcant new lows - DOW 6500ish - then the mid-5000's etc - to kill their "will") and their "ability" (read tons of cash & Bond $ yet to rotate) remains strong due to tons of cash that can potentially sustain the move.
This is a time to simply wait patiently for things to play themselves out... the Bulls simply are still too willing to buy the broad market on dips and they still have too much money to still buy it with...for High Reward-Low Risk Shorting imho.
Pick your spots, do a little swing trading...don't get greedy - take what the market gives you...and sit in hoardes of CASH and WAIT PATIENTLY...the NEXT BIG THING will come...sooner, or later...always has...always will....this remains a low reward-high/moderate risk environment imho.
ciao`
So far he is right except I own some stocks that have gone up in the past few months but the pf is still 20%+ under the all time high. So................
Go CKG, AQI, CDU and CBD and I may be singing a different tune the next few months depending on news. Hope it's good. <g>
Tom |
