MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (17194)	5/30/2003 12:07:01 AM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) of 19219

The surge in New Highs we are seeing is directly related to surpassing the highs from that last fall rally, moving the new high threshold back to last May/June for a great many stocks. Every day now the threshold gets lower on average, which can be seen by looing at the declining slope of the indexes this time last year. New Lows will not be threatened for the majority of stocks until either we approach the lows of last October, or until a lot of time passes while the market stays relatively flat and then dips again. If this rally ends, it will end long before we see a significant increase in new lows. If we see a lot of new lows in the next six months or so it will be because the bottom has fallen out of this thing and the economy has slipped into the infamous double dip. I would not be looking for new lows to call an end to the rally. A sustained drop in the number of New Highs is all that is needed.

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