Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch Message Board

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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (19695)	5/30/2003 9:39:43 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) of 89467

Anatomy of a real estate crash, by Clif Droke May 30, 2002 321gold.com "There are at least three major reasons for believing that 2004 will be the first of many bad years to come for real estate and ultimately the "beginning of the end" of imploding the myth that real estate represents the ultimate financial asset." this guy is quite good, very solid in his technical analysis basis of thinking if you can only ignore his parabolas with tiny bases he points to the RMS (real estate builders and REIT index) which is topping out in a perfect 5-wave I think it is safe to say that whatever the govt officials prop up, will come down hard for two years they have been pumping up real estate to insane levels their value has risen about 15% per year for 3 straight years in many areas while the economy is flat and debt default is widespread I just read that 12 foreclosures occur for every 1000 mortgages now, way up we also have 1.4 million personal bankruptcies per year now, way up and 25-35% of Ford and GMAC car loans are in delinquency or default now, way up Ford is still headed for bankruptcy by the end of the year here is a funny one: GM's pension obligation underfunding is 3x what the entire company is worth !!! in 1999 people said that stocks had gone up 15% per year, so they would continue now they are saying the same thing about real estate I expect they will be proven wrong Americans dont learn much from history, because they dont study history in fact, they ignore even the history of the most recent decade (let alone century) / jim

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