Analyzing the Top Belmont Contenders
this comes from a website I visit from time to time ...
and
as the thread is dead AGAIN ... dang the old hardboots here have turned into houseslipperboots I guess ....
oh well, I'll have something to say no matter what
here is a start ... I agree with some of it and I disagree with some of it ..
is there anyone out there on SI who even cares about the Belmont?
Updated: 05/29/2003
Only 7 days left before Belmont Day, June 7th!
Using historical trends and the past performances for the contenders currently probable for the Belmont Stakes, we have weighted several factors to develop the following ranked list, similar to what was done for the Derby and Preakness. Each horse was given points for his conformation to a Belmont winner's profile and points were subtracted for negative aspects. Of course this does not guarantee that the horse with the most points will win, but it does give you a good idea who to eliminate from the winning position. It follows that if a horse doesn't fit the winner's profile, he may still finish in the money, much like how handicappers might bet anti-bias horses on the bottom of exotics. Although this technique did not work in the Derby, it did single out Funny Cide as the winner of the Preakness.
For more information on the trends and statistics used in this analysis, check out the book Triple Crown Handicapper 2003 by Jim Mazur.
Unlike in the other two Triple Crown races, workout patterns aren't as important in the Belmont. These horses should already be at their peak condition having come out of grueling preps against top competition, so their trainers will send them out for maintenance works saving their best effort for the race. Peter Pan horses generally have one work before the Belmont, while horses coming out of the Preakness will have two, but these are not hard and fast rules pointing at a winner.
The Belmont winner's profile requires a dosage index under 4.00 - this angle is stronger in the Belmont than at the Derby - but since all twelve contenders we looked at qualify we need only mention this fact here. Another angle is Beyer triple tops, where a horse's last three starts were three consecutive increasing career highs. No horse in the field so far qualifies here, but if one did, this is a huge knock since that horse is most likely to bounce over the 1 1/2 mile marathon at Belmont Park.
Funny Cide
winner of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness will go for the Triple Crown in the Belmont.
Funny Cide - He's on his home ground of Belmont Park trying to be racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner. And it's little surprise he scored the most points under this analysis. The preferred running style in the Belmont is stalking, which is how Jose Santos and Funny Cide won the Derby and Preakness so easily. He made his last start in the Preakness which is the preferred Belmont prep, he had the required number of races and the required stakes win(s) at 3, ran a sharp race last out, is within the acceptable layoff length between starts (in his case 3 weeks), has won at 9 furlongs or longer, and he has run to the Beyer par of 106. His only knock is that he only had 3 starts at two, where the profile calls for 4 to 6 starts. If the profile holds true we will have a Triple Crown winner on June 7.
Midway Road
A close second to Funny Cide in points, Midway Road is also a stalker, came out of the Preakness, had the required number of races and a stakes wins at 3, and ran a sharp prep race (Preakness runner-up). Unlike Funny Cide, he has enough starts as a two year old, a plus, but also unlike Funny Cide, he has not run to the Beyer par of 106 nor has he won at 9 furlongs, which negates this.
Empire Maker
Skipping the Preakness and not having a prep race between the Derby and Belmont means Empire Maker has too long a layoff; the preferred length is between 13 and 22 days. Empire Maker also stalks, has enough races and a stakes win at 3, ran a sharp last race (Derby runner-up), has won at 9 furlongs (the Wood Memorial), and has run to the Beyer par. Like Funny Cide, he does not have enough starts as a two year old.
Best Minister
winner of the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness day will try to emulate stablemate Sarava's path to victory in last year's Belmont.
Best Minister - Ken McPeek is looking to repeat the Sarava upset of last year with this one, winner of the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness day last out. This means he is within the correct layoff range and is coming off a sharp prep race. He is a stalker, has enough starts at three with the required stakes win, and has a win at 9 furlongs (his maiden win, by 12 lengths). On the negative side he was underraced at 2 and has not run to the Beyer par.
Dynever
This latecomer is coming out of the Lone Star Derby (a win), an untested prep race for the Belmont. He also stalks the pace, has enough races and a stakes win at three, ran a sharp race last out, and has a win at 9 furlongs. However, he did not come out of the Preakness, his layoff is too long (by one week) did not race enough at 2, and hasn't run to the Beyer par figure
Scrimshaw
Coming out of the Preakness with a third place finish means he has the required sharp prep race, despite being beaten by 10 1/2 lengths. He also stalks, has enough races and stakes wins at 3, and has the correct layoff. On the negative side, he was underraced at 2, has not won at 1 1/8 miles, and has not run to the Beyer par.
Ten Most Wanted
The Illinois Derby winner ran a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby and has not started since, so he is not coming off a sharp prep nor is his layoff within range, and he was underraced at 2. On the positive side, he is a stalker, has enough starts and a stakes win at 3, has won at 1 1/8 miles, and has run to the Beyer par.
Supervisor
Another latecomer, he comes off a third place finish in the Peter Pan, which qualifies as a sharp race within the profiled layoff length. Unlike the horses we ranked above, he is a deep closer which is not the preferred style in the Belmont (ralliers have won just 18% of the last 17 Belmont Stakes). Also unlike many of our top contenders, he actually has the correct number of two-year-old starts, but has too many three-year-old starts, without a stakes win, which are negatives. As well, he has no 9-furlong victories and has not run to the Beyer par.
Outta Here This horse does not qualify under the profile at all. In summary, he is a late rallier, did not race in the Preakness (meaning the layoff is too long), was overraced at 2, underraced at 3 without a stakes win, is not coming off a sharp race (seventh in the Derby beaten 6 1/2 lengths), has not won at 9 furlongs, and has not run to the Beyer par of 106. In fact he has never raced to a triple digit Beyer. Put simply, this is the wrong race for him. |
